Portugal vs Poland: betting odds 15 Nov 2024

The Matchday 5 clash in the Nations League between Portugal and Poland in Group 1 of League A will take place on November 15 at the Estádio do Dragão in Porto. Portugal vs. Poland: prediction and betting odds, statistics.


Referee: Donatas Rumšas (Latvia)

 

Matches – 15 (International matches, 2023–2024);

Yellow cards shown (including second yellows) – 51;

Average yellow cards per match – 3.4;

Red cards shown – 6;

Average fouls per match – 22;

Penalties – 33%.

Predicted lineups for Portugal vs. Poland

Portugal (4-3-3): Diogo Costa – Nuno Mendes, Nelson Semedo, Diogo Dalot, Renato Veiga – Bruno Fernandes, Vitinha, Bernardo Silva – Rafael Leão, Pedro Neto, Cristiano Ronaldo.


Poland (3-5-2): Lukasz Skorupski – Jan Bednarek, Sebastian Walukiewicz, Jakub Kiwior – Bartosz Slisz, Nicola Zalewski, Piotr Zielinski, Bartosz Kapustka, Sebastian Szymanski – Karol Swiderski, Krzysztof Piatek.

Portugal

Portugal confidently leads the standings in Group 1. The team started with home victories by the same scoreline of 2-1 against Croatia and Scotland, and then won away against Poland (3-1). In the last round, Roberto Martinez's side dropped their first points in the current Nations League, drawing away with Scotland (0-0). To advance to the playoffs, the team only needs to avoid defeat in the upcoming match.


  • Portugal has played 22 matches in this tournament and has suffered only three defeats (14 wins and 5 draws).
  • The team has not conceded more than one goal in their last 10 Nations League matches.
  • No more than three goals have been scored in 6 of Portugal's last 7 home Nations League games.

Poland

Poland has only one win to their name, which they secured in the first round by defeating Scotland away with a score of 3-2. This was followed by two defeats – against Croatia (0-1) and Portugal (1-3), and in the last match, Poland drew with the Balkans at home (3-3). If Poland earns more points in the fifth round than Croatia, they will keep their chances of reaching the Nations League playoffs. If they earn more points than Scotland, they will avoid direct relegation to League B based on this match's outcome.


Forward Robert Lewandowski will miss both matches in November due to injury.


  • The team has not won in 7 of their last 9 Nations League matches (2 draws and 5 losses).
  • Poland has conceded in the second half in 10 of their last 12 games in this tournament.
  • No more than three goals have been scored in 7 of Poland's last 10 away Nations League matches.

Portugal vs. Poland: Match Prediction

Despite the fact that a draw would suffice for the hosts in this encounter, I am confident they will not take risks and will try to defeat their opponent. Especially considering that Portugal is very strong at home: in their last 10 home Nations League matches, the team has secured 8 victories, losing only to France and Spain. Meanwhile, Poland has struggled against top opponents away in this tournament, winning only 3 of their last 10 away matches.


I also expect at least three goals in the match. Portugal has scored at least two goals in 6 of their last 8 home Nations League matches. Poland has scored in 7 of their last 10 away games in this tournament but has also conceded in 9 of those 10 matches.


It is worth noting that Portugal has a 7-match winning streak at home in official competitions. Moreover, in six of these matches, three or more goals were scored. My prediction – Portugal to win and Total over 2.5 goals

Betting tips 15 Nov 2024

The absence of Robert Lewandowski in the Poland national team will be a significant advantage for Portugal, as containing the opposing attack will be much easier without the Barcelona forward. In Warsaw, The Portuguese controlled possession against the Poles (3:1), and the support from the Estádio do Dragão stands will boost their confidence further.

Following their Euro 2024 quarter-final elimination from France (0:1 after a penalty shootout), Portugal have made a series of changes within their squad. Firstly, Roberto Martínez is not hesitant to utilise Cristiano Ronaldo from the bench—a move that paid off when the legendary forward netted the winner against Scotland (2:1) after coming on as a substitute. Secondly, the team are increasingly opting for counter-attacks, with quick wings like Rafael Leão and Pedro Neto creating dangerous opportunities (3.01 xG and 18 shots against Poland).

Poland's victory over Scotland (3:2) in the first round was their best performance in this Nations League campaign. In October, they conceded a total of six goals against Portugal and Croatia (3:3). Without Robert Lewandowski, Michał Probierz is expected to start either Kacper Urbański or Karol Świderski, neither of whom pose a serious threat to the group leaders.

Portugal are set to add a comfortable home win over Poland to their away triumph, paving their way to the Nations League playoffs. Cristiano Ronaldo is eager to enhance his national team goal record, and he will have plenty of chances on Friday.

Betting prediction
Portugal (-1.5)
Cf
Odds
19/25
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Nations League: previous matches in the tournament

Portugal
15.10.24
Scotland
Portugal
D
12.10.24
Poland
Portugal
W
08.09.24
Portugal
Scotland
W
05.09.24
Portugal
Croatia
W
More matches
Poland
15.10.24
Poland
Croatia
D
12.10.24
Poland
Portugal
L
08.09.24
Croatia
Poland
L
05.09.24
Scotland
Poland
W
More matches

H2H: Portugal — Poland

Nations League 2024-2025
12.10.24
Poland
Portugal
Nations League 2018-2019
20.11.18
Portugal
Poland
11.10.18
Poland
Portugal
UEFA Euro 2020 qualifying 2016
30.06.16
Poland
Portugal
1
:
1
3
:
5
P
Friendlies 2012
29.02.12
Poland
Portugal
0
:
0
Euro 2008 Qualifiers
08.09.07
Portugal
Poland
2
:
2
11.10.06
Poland
Portugal
2
:
1

Group stage

League A. Group 1
Team
Played
Matches played
W
D
L
Goals
Goals
Points
Points
1
Portugal
  2:1 2:1 5:1 6 4 2 0
13:5
14
2
Croatia
1:1   2:1 1:0 6 2 2 2
8:8
8
3
Scotland
0:0 1:0   2:3 6 2 1 3
7:8
7
4
Poland
1:3 3:3 1:2   6 1 1 4
9:16
4

Team lineups

Portugal

Roberto Martinez
coach
Player Matches Goals
In squad
Diogo Costa
gk. 31 -21
José Sá
gk. 2 -2
Rui Silva
gk. 1 0
João Cancelo
df. 59 10
Nélson Semedo
df. 39 0
Nuno Alexandre Tavares Mendes
df. 31 0
Diogo Dalot
df. 25 3
António João Pereira de Albuquerque Tavares da Silva
df. 16 0
Renato Palma Veiga
df. 1 0
Nuno Tavares
df. 0 0
Tiago Djalo
df. 0 0
Tomás Lemos Araújo
df. 0 0
Bernardo Silva
mf. 97 13
Bruno Fernandes
mf. 75 24
Vitinha
mf. 23 0
Otavio
mf. 21 3
João Pedro Gonçalves Neves
mf. 11 0
Trincão
mf. 8 0
Samú Costa
mf. 1 0
Cristiano Ronaldo
fw. 216 133
João Félix
fw. 43 8
Rafael Leão
fw. 35 4
Pedro Neto
fw. 13 1
Francisco Conceição
fw. 7 1
Poland

Michal Probierz
coach
Player Matches Goals
In squad
Łukasz Skorupski
gk. 13 -13
Marcin Bulka
gk. 3 -5
Bartłomiej Drągowski
gk. 2 -7
Jan Bednarek
df. 64 1
Bartosz Bereszyński
df. 56 0
Jakub Piotr Kiwior
df. 29 1
Tymoteusz Puchacz
df. 14 0
Sebastian Walukiewicz
df. 7 1
Kamil Dawid Piątkowski
df. 4 0
Piotr Zieliński
mf. 97 14
Sebastian Szymański
mf. 40 5
Jakub Moder
mf. 30 2
Nicola Zalewski
mf. 25 3
Bartosz Slisz
mf. 13 0
Kacper Urbański
mf. 9 0
Taras Romanchuk
mf. 4 1
Mateusz Bogusz
mf. 1 0
Antoni Kozubal
mf. 0 0
Dominik Marczuk
mf. 0 0
Karol Swiderski
fw. 37 11
Krzysztof Piątek
fw. 32 12
Adam Buksa
fw. 18 7
Jakub Kaminski
fw. 16 1

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Andy H
Andy H
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